Bees are looking for balance.
We know how to calculate it.

Split, harvest, feed. With every decision, your apiary gains or loses its chances of making it through winter. We model that trade-off and tell you, week after week, the right moment to act.

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Hive weight · season 2025
Measured weight Modelled decision
Indicative data — ApiThrive model

Video

Will the hives make it through winter?

The project

The economics of a hive

A hive seeks equilibrium. Every day, bees make a trade-off: collect pollen — which feeds future larvae — or produce honey — which feeds today's bees. Everything is organised around a single goal: surviving the winter.

In reality, what looks like instinct from the outside conceals an optimisation problem that can be written in equations.

From that equilibrium we derive what we call the economics of a hive: every resource — a lavender field, a water source, a chestnut forest — has a value; every decision a beekeeper makes — harvest, feed, split — has a cost. That cost is what we calculate, apiary by apiary, to tell you the moment when your interests and your colony's converge.

When to split

When to split

Split when on average, there are more surviving daughter colonies after the operation than without it.

When to harvest

When to harvest

Harvest when honey costs the hive the least — when it reduces its probability of survival the least.

When to feed

When to feed

Feed when honey costs the hive the most — that is when sugar increases its probability of survival the most.

The team

Three perspectives, one model

Mathieu

Mathieu

The model's designer

Graduate of the École Normale Supérieure, PhD from École Polytechnique, mathematician and amateur beekeeper.

This dual perspective — equations on one side, hives on the other — is the origin of the model at the heart of ApiThrive: a mathematical formulation of colony economics in which every beekeeper decision translates into a change in the probability of winter survival. Mathieu is currently working on refining the model to optimise its real-world application.

His work on bees is available on HAL: an article co-authored with M.-C. Anstett, a biology researcher, and a preprint.

Ben

Ben

The scientific bridge

Graduate of the École Normale Supérieure, PhD from the University of Burgundy, mathematics researcher at the University of Geneva.

Supporting his brother in the development of the model, Ben's role is to build connections with biologists to gather field data, with the scientific community for exchanges and publications, and with operational partners to turn the model into an application that is genuinely usable day to day.

Olivier

Olivier

The project's voice

PhD from the University of Burgundy, teacher in preparatory classes, creator of the Øljen – Les maths en finesse channel, with over 100,000 subscribers.

His mission is to make complex scientific concepts accessible and to create dialogue between disciplines that do not naturally speak to one another — mathematics, physics, biology, beekeeping — and then bring that dialogue to a general audience. On the ApiThrive channel, he builds an audience that is curious about science and will be enthusiastic about the product when it launches.

Questions

A few clarifications

ApiThrive is primarily aimed at beekeepers, from the hobbyist with a single hive to the professional managing hundreds of colonies. We design the application to be useful at all scales, without assuming any scientific background from the user. The project also speaks more broadly to anyone who enjoys seeing mathematical tools applied to living subjects, and who will find genuine reward in the science communication videos we publish alongside it.

The model is built on the equations governing energy and matter flows within a bee colony: what comes in, what goes out, and what is needed to survive the winter. Onto this physical framework, we layer field data — flowering calendars, climate zones, nectar sources — to calibrate the calculations for a specific apiary.

Not yet. ApiThrive is in development. The scientific model is complete, and much of our current work involves collecting the biological data the application will need to function. In parallel, we are building a community of beekeepers who want to help shape the tool — through their feedback and questions. If you would like to be part of it, you can reach us through the form below.

Our initial launch covers Switzerland, but we plan to expand quickly to other countries such as France and Belgium. At its core, the model is not tied to any one region — it is tied to a set of local data (flowering calendars, climate zones, nectar sources) that need to be supplied. The larger the community grows in a given region, the more accurate the model will be there.

There are several ways to contribute, and all of them matter to us. Spreading the word — a mention to a fellow beekeeper, a comment on one of our videos. Writing to us to offer field data collection. And leaving your address in the form below to follow our progress and take part in the first trials when they become possible.

Get in touch

Join our community

Your perspective matters

ApiThrive is currently being built, and hungrily welcomes outside perspectives.

Whether you are a beekeeper — beginner or seasoned — a curious scientist, or simply someone who loves bees, write to us. We read every message and always reply.

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